Newmont
Is there value inside this enterprise that the company is not currently capturing?
Filings through Jun 30, 2026 · Market data as of Sep 16, 2026
WE MODEL THE ENTERPRISE.™
01Executive summary
Newmont enters the engine with $25.8B of trailing revenue, $16.1B of GAAP-derived EBITDA and a $124.4B enterprise value. Token Clear detected 4 value pathways from the company's own filings, led by Treasury Optimization, Margin Recovery Program and Capital Allocation Engine. Counted pathways model $355.5M–$1.1B of recurring annual economics, or $2.7B–$8.3B at today's multiple (2.2%–6.7% of current enterprise value) — against a 1% Thesis of $1.2B.
- Effective tax rate of 39.1% is far above the 21% federal statutory rate.
- Revenue grew 21.3% in the latest fiscal year.
02Current enterprise state
| Fact | Value | Class | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $25.8B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-23 |
| Revenue growth (latest FY) | 21.3% | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2025 | FY 2025-12-31 revenue ÷ FY 2024-12-31 revenue − 1 |
| EBITDA (TTM, pre-tax proxy) | $16.1B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | Pre-tax income + interest expense + D&A |
| EBITDA margin (TTM) | 62.5% | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | EBITDA ÷ revenue |
| EBITDA margin FY2024 | — | DATA REQUIRED | Dec 31, 2024 | (Operating income + D&A) ÷ revenue, prior fiscal year |
| Net income (TTM) | $8.6B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-23 |
| Operating cash flow (TTM) | $12.6B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-23 |
| Capital expenditures (TTM) | $2.9B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-23 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $9.7B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | Operating cash flow − capex |
| Cash & short-term investments | $9.0B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | Cash + short-term investments |
| Total debt | $5.1B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-23 |
| Shareholders' equity | $35.2B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-23 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.05B | REPORTED | Jul 16, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-23 |
| Share price | $121.76 | REPORTED | Sep 16, 2026 | Yahoo Finance · NYSE |
| Market capitalization | $128.3B | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Share price × shares outstanding |
| Enterprise value | $124.4B | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Market cap + total debt − cash & short-term investments |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.7× | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA (TTM) |
03Evidence quality
04Value pathways
Ranked by deterministic Token Clear score. Each pathway lists the evidence that triggered it, the assumptions that size it, and what stands in its way.
Newmont holds $9.0B of cash and short-term investments against an operating reserve of $2.6B (10% of TTM revenue). A tiered treasury policy on the $6.4B above reserve can raise yield without reducing liquidity coverage.
EBITDA margin of 62.5% trails the live peer median of 75.5%. Closing part of the 3.0% gap on $25.8B of revenue is a direct EBITDA lever.
Free cash flow yield is 7.6% ($9.7B on a $128.3B market cap) versus a 4.6% implied cost of debt. At this yield, repurchases, deleveraging and acquisitions compete for the same dollar; Token Clear ranks each use of cash on modeled per-share value and risk rather than defaulting to one answer.
The company holds net cash. Excess cash plus debt capacity to 2.5× EBITDA gives about $41.6B of acquisition capacity — 33.5% of enterprise value. Only synergies are counted; acquired EBITDA bought at a fair price is not value creation.
05Financial scenarios
| Scenario | Pathway EBITDA | Modeled EBITDA | EV at today's 7.7× | vs. today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (reported) | $0.00 | $16.1B | $124.4B | 0.0% |
| Conservative | $355.5M | $16.5B | $127.1B | 2.2% |
| Base | $718.1M | $16.8B | $129.9B | 4.5% |
| Strategic | $1.1B | $17.2B | $132.7B | 6.7% |
Scenario columns apply the low, midpoint and high end of every counted pathway range. The peer column isolates a market re-rating and is shown for sensitivity only.
06Multiple Intelligence™
| Driver | Newmont | Peer median | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 21.3% | 43.5% | behind |
| EBITDA margin | 62.5% | 75.5% | behind |
| FCF conversion | 60.4% | 68.1% | behind |
| Return on invested capital | — | 9.6% | data required |
| Net leverage | -0.2× | 0.2× | ahead |
| Capex intensity | 11.2% | 10.2% | in line |
| Stock comp / revenue | 0.4% | 0.8% | in line |
Peer set (0 valid of 4): B (excluded: Multiple not computable) · AEM (excluded: Multiple not computable) · RGLD 16.8× · FNV (excluded: Multiple not computable).
07The 1% Thesis™ — validated bottom-up
08Recommended sequence & 90-day proof of value
- • Treasury Optimization
- • Margin Recovery Program
- • Capital Allocation Engine
- • Accretive M&A Capacity
| Days 1–15 | Validate | Confirm reported facts, peer set and every ASSUMPTION with Newmont finance leadership; close DATA REQUIRED gaps from primary filings. |
| Days 16–45 | Design | Detailed design for NOW pathways: Treasury Optimization. Counsel review of regulatory blockers. |
| Days 46–75 | Approve & activate | Human approval gate per pathway; activate approved pathways with defined owners and baselines. |
| Days 76–90 | Measure | Baseline vs. target vs. actual on the first measurable metrics; decide on NEXT pathways and a platform engagement. |
09Risks & dependencies
No pathway-specific blockers were raised.
10Methodology & disclosures
Evidence classes. REPORTED taken from SEC XBRL filings or delayed market data · CALCULATED deterministic derivation with formula · BENCHMARK live peer comparable · ASSUMPTION explicit, challengeable input · SCENARIO output of stated assumptions.
Calculations. Trailing-twelve-month figures are fiscal year + current year-to-date − prior year-to-date. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortization (GAAP-derived, excluding non-GAAP adjustments). Enterprise value is market capitalization plus total debt less cash and short-term investments, excluding leases, minority interest and preferred equity. Non-USD filers are converted at spot. Recurring pathway economics are valued at today's multiple; overlapping pathways are counted once and contingent pathways are excluded.
Governance. AI does not perform or override valuation arithmetic. Scoring configuration is confidential and server-side. No pathway proceeds without human approval.
Disclosure. This study provides enterprise-value intelligence, scenario modeling and strategic analysis. Illustrative scenarios are not forecasts, guarantees, investment recommendations or assurances of market valuation. Market prices and valuation multiples are determined by investors and market conditions. Certain strategies require legal, tax, accounting, regulatory and other professional review before implementation.