MARA Holdings
Is there value inside this enterprise that the company is not currently capturing?
Filings through Jun 30, 2026 · Market data as of Sep 16, 2026
WE MODEL THE ENTERPRISE.™
01Executive summary
MARA Holdings enters the engine with $421.3M of cash against $4.3B of market value. Token Clear detected 3 value pathways from the company's own filings, led by Strategic Holdings Value Realization, Employee Ownership & Retention Program and Non-Dilutive Project Capital. Counted pathways model $253.8M–$551.0M of one-time per-share value (dilution avoided) — 6.0×–12.9× the 1% Thesis of $42.6M.
- GAAP EBITDA margin compressed from 112.0% (prior fiscal year) to -264.4% trailing — about $3.0B of annual EBITDA at today's revenue.
- Reported cash covers about 0.5 years of operating burn.
- Capital intensity is 42.7% of revenue ($343.6M TTM).
- Revenue grew 38.2% in the latest fiscal year.
- EBITDA is negative — EBITDA-multiple valuation is not meaningful.
02Current enterprise state
| Fact | Value | Class | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & short-term investments | $421.3M | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-06 |
| Operating cash flow (TTM) | −$895.1M | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-06 |
| Cash runway | 0.5 yrs | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | Cash & ST investments ÷ annual operating cash burn |
| Total assets | $4.3B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-06 |
| Non-current assets | $3.8B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-06 |
| Exploration & mineral assets | — | DATA REQUIRED | — | — |
| Total liabilities | — | DATA REQUIRED | — | — |
| Total debt | $2.4B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-06 |
| Shareholders' equity | $1.7B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-06 |
| Shares outstanding | 386.3M | REPORTED | Jul 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-06 |
| Share price | $11.04 | REPORTED | Sep 16, 2026 | Yahoo Finance · NasdaqCM |
| Market capitalization | $4.3B | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Share price × shares outstanding |
| Price / Book | 2.6× | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Market cap ÷ shareholders' equity |
03Evidence quality
04Value pathways
Ranked by deterministic Token Clear score. Each pathway lists the evidence that triggered it, the assumptions that size it, and what stands in its way.
About $2.6B of non-current assets sit outside exploration assets and PP&E — likely strategic equity holdings or project interests (verify in the annual filing notes). Against a $4.3B market cap and $421.3M of cash, these holdings are a potential non-dilutive funding source and a sum-of-the-parts story.
Stock-based compensation is $145.7M a year (18.1% of revenue). Participation structures that align employees with measured enterprise outcomes can deliver the same retention with less dilution.
Operating cash burn is $895.1M a year against $421.3M of reported cash — about 0.5 years of runway. Funding 2 years of work entirely with equity at today's price would issue 24.3% new shares. Royalties, streams or compliant tokenized economic rights on defined project cash flows can replace part of that equity.
05Financial scenarios
Asset-based methodology: counted pathways retain $253.8M–$551.0M of per-share value by replacing dilutive equity. Use the Financial Lab to model holdings and project values against book.
Scenario columns apply the low, midpoint and high end of every counted pathway range. The peer column isolates a market re-rating and is shown for sensitivity only.
06Multiple Intelligence™
| Driver | MARA Holdings | Peer median | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 38.2% | — | data required |
| EBITDA margin | -264.4% | — | data required |
| FCF conversion | — | — | data required |
| Return on invested capital | -63.6% | — | data required |
| Net leverage | — | — | data required |
| Capex intensity | 42.7% | — | data required |
| Stock comp / revenue | 18.1% | — | data required |
Peer set (0 valid of 0): none configured.
07The 1% Thesis™ — validated bottom-up
08Recommended sequence & 90-day proof of value
- • Strategic Holdings Value Realization
- • Non-Dilutive Project Capital
- • Employee Ownership & Retention Program
| Days 1–15 | Validate | Confirm reported facts, peer set and every ASSUMPTION with MARA Holdings finance leadership; close DATA REQUIRED gaps from primary filings. |
| Days 16–45 | Design | Detailed design for NOW pathways: Strategic Holdings Value Realization, Non-Dilutive Project Capital. Counsel review of regulatory blockers. |
| Days 46–75 | Approve & activate | Human approval gate per pathway; activate approved pathways with defined owners and baselines. |
| Days 76–90 | Measure | Baseline vs. target vs. actual on the first measurable metrics; decide on NEXT pathways and a platform engagement. |
09Risks & dependencies
- Composition of other non-current assets is inferred — DATA REQUIRED from filing notes before external use.
- Securities, mining-royalty and project-level legal review; ounces in the ground are not monetizable value until defined economic rights exist.
10Methodology & disclosures
Evidence classes. REPORTED taken from SEC XBRL filings or delayed market data · CALCULATED deterministic derivation with formula · BENCHMARK live peer comparable · ASSUMPTION explicit, challengeable input · SCENARIO output of stated assumptions.
Calculations. Trailing-twelve-month figures are fiscal year + current year-to-date − prior year-to-date. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortization (GAAP-derived, excluding non-GAAP adjustments). Enterprise value is market capitalization plus total debt less cash and short-term investments, excluding leases, minority interest and preferred equity. Non-USD filers are converted at spot. Recurring pathway economics are valued at today's multiple; overlapping pathways are counted once and contingent pathways are excluded.
Governance. AI does not perform or override valuation arithmetic. Scoring configuration is confidential and server-side. No pathway proceeds without human approval.
Disclosure. This study provides enterprise-value intelligence, scenario modeling and strategic analysis. Illustrative scenarios are not forecasts, guarantees, investment recommendations or assurances of market valuation. Market prices and valuation multiples are determined by investors and market conditions. Certain strategies require legal, tax, accounting, regulatory and other professional review before implementation.