Robinhood
Is there value inside this enterprise that the company is not currently capturing?
Filings through Jun 30, 2026 · Market data as of Sep 16, 2026
WE MODEL THE ENTERPRISE.™
01Executive summary
Robinhood enters the engine with $2.1B of trailing net income and a $95.2B market cap. Token Clear detected 5 value pathways from the company's own filings, led by Treasury Optimization, Programmable Payments & Settlement and Employee Ownership & Retention Program. Counted pathways model $47.7M–$137.6M of recurring annual economics, or $1.3B–$3.8B at today's multiple (1.4%–4.0% of current market cap) — against a 1% Thesis of $952.3M.
- Trades at 46.0× Price / Earnings versus a live median of 18.0× across 3 peers — a 155% premium.
- Revenue grew 51.6% in the latest fiscal year.
02Current enterprise state
| Fact | Value | Class | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $4.9B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-30 |
| Revenue growth (latest FY) | 51.6% | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2025 | FY 2025-12-31 revenue ÷ FY 2024-12-31 revenue − 1 |
| EBITDA (TTM, pre-tax proxy) | $2.5B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | Pre-tax income + interest expense + D&A |
| EBITDA margin (TTM) | 51.7% | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | EBITDA ÷ revenue |
| EBITDA margin FY2024 | — | DATA REQUIRED | Dec 31, 2024 | (Operating income + D&A) ÷ revenue, prior fiscal year |
| Net income (TTM) | $2.1B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-30 |
| Operating cash flow (TTM) | $245.0M | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-30 |
| Capital expenditures (TTM) | — | DATA REQUIRED | — | — |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | — | DATA REQUIRED | Jun 30, 2026 | Operating cash flow − capex |
| Cash & short-term investments | $5.4B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-30 |
| Total debt | $2.2B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-30 |
| Shareholders' equity | $9.5B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-30 |
| Shares outstanding | 912.0M | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-07-30 |
| Share price | $104.42 | REPORTED | Sep 16, 2026 | Yahoo Finance · NasdaqGS |
| Market capitalization | $95.2B | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Share price × shares outstanding |
| Enterprise value | $92.0B | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Market cap + total debt − cash & short-term investments |
| Price / Earnings | 46.0× | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Market cap ÷ net income (TTM) |
03Evidence quality
04Value pathways
Ranked by deterministic Token Clear score. Each pathway lists the evidence that triggered it, the assumptions that size it, and what stands in its way.
Robinhood holds $5.4B of cash and short-term investments against an operating reserve of $493.2M (10% of TTM revenue). A tiered treasury policy on the $4.9B above reserve can raise yield without reducing liquidity coverage.
Programmable payments and settlement on $4.9B of revenue can reduce payment cost and open new settlement revenue.
Stock-based compensation is $351.0M a year (7.1% of revenue). Participation structures that align employees with measured enterprise outcomes can deliver the same retention with less dilution.
Proprietary transaction, usage and customer data across $4.9B of revenue can be packaged into permissioned benchmarking, risk and AI products for customers and partners.
A board-approved policy could allocate 0.5%–2.0% of the $4.9B excess liquidity to digital-asset reserves tied to the settlement and custody products the business already runs. Returns are price-dependent and are not modeled.
05Financial scenarios
Earnings methodology: counted pathways add $47.7M–$137.6M of pre-tax earnings, or $1.3B–$3.8B of equity value at today's 35.0× P/E after 21% tax.
Scenario columns apply the low, midpoint and high end of every counted pathway range. The peer column isolates a market re-rating and is shown for sensitivity only.
06Multiple Intelligence™
| Driver | Robinhood | Peer median | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 51.6% | 22.6% | ahead |
| EBITDA margin | 51.7% | 351.8% | behind |
| FCF conversion | — | -123.7% | data required |
| Return on invested capital | — | 4.6% | data required |
| Net leverage | -1.3× | -1.3× | in line |
| Capex intensity | — | 2.4% | data required |
| Stock comp / revenue | 7.1% | 9.7% | ahead |
Peer set (3 valid of 4): SCHW 18.0× · IBKR 8.0× · COIN (excluded: Negative earnings) · SOFI 34.2×.
07The 1% Thesis™ — validated bottom-up
08Recommended sequence & 90-day proof of value
- • Treasury Optimization
- • Programmable Payments & Settlement
- • Employee Ownership & Retention Program
- • Data & AI Products
- • Reserve Diversification Policy (Digital Assets)
| Days 1–15 | Validate | Confirm reported facts, peer set and every ASSUMPTION with Robinhood finance leadership; close DATA REQUIRED gaps from primary filings. |
| Days 16–45 | Design | Detailed design for NOW pathways: Treasury Optimization, Programmable Payments & Settlement. Counsel review of regulatory blockers. |
| Days 46–75 | Approve & activate | Human approval gate per pathway; activate approved pathways with defined owners and baselines. |
| Days 76–90 | Measure | Baseline vs. target vs. actual on the first measurable metrics; decide on NEXT pathways and a platform engagement. |
09Risks & dependencies
- Money-transmission, stablecoin and banking-partner requirements vary by jurisdiction.
- Data rights, privacy and customer consent.
- Accounting, custody and board risk-appetite approval required.
10Methodology & disclosures
Evidence classes. REPORTED taken from SEC XBRL filings or delayed market data · CALCULATED deterministic derivation with formula · BENCHMARK live peer comparable · ASSUMPTION explicit, challengeable input · SCENARIO output of stated assumptions.
Calculations. Trailing-twelve-month figures are fiscal year + current year-to-date − prior year-to-date. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortization (GAAP-derived, excluding non-GAAP adjustments). Enterprise value is market capitalization plus total debt less cash and short-term investments, excluding leases, minority interest and preferred equity. Non-USD filers are converted at spot. Recurring pathway economics are valued at today's multiple; overlapping pathways are counted once and contingent pathways are excluded.
Governance. AI does not perform or override valuation arithmetic. Scoring configuration is confidential and server-side. No pathway proceeds without human approval.
Disclosure. This study provides enterprise-value intelligence, scenario modeling and strategic analysis. Illustrative scenarios are not forecasts, guarantees, investment recommendations or assurances of market valuation. Market prices and valuation multiples are determined by investors and market conditions. Certain strategies require legal, tax, accounting, regulatory and other professional review before implementation.