Green Thumb Industries
Is there value inside this enterprise that the company is not currently capturing?
Filings through Jun 30, 2026 · Market data as of Sep 16, 2026
WE MODEL THE ENTERPRISE.™
01Executive summary
Green Thumb Industries enters the engine with $1.2B of trailing revenue, $268.4M of GAAP-derived EBITDA and a $1.6B enterprise value. Token Clear detected 9 value pathways from the company's own filings, led by Margin Recovery Program, Brand Licensing & IP Monetization and Tax Structure & Rescheduling Readiness (IRC §280E). Counted pathways model $46.0M–$118.8M of recurring annual economics, or $282.2M–$728.4M at today's multiple (17.1%–44.3% of current enterprise value) — against a 1% Thesis of $16.5M.
- Trades at 6.1× EV / EBITDA versus a live median of 7.7× across 3 peers — a 20% discount.
- 4 of 7 peers have negative or sub-5% GAAP EBITDA (TRLV, VRNO, CRLBF, GLAS); Green Thumb Industries earns a 22.2% margin.
- GAAP EBITDA margin compressed from 29.7% (prior fiscal year) to 22.2% trailing — about $90.6M of annual EBITDA at today's revenue.
- Effective tax rate of 55.3% is far above the 21% federal statutory rate.
02Current enterprise state
| Fact | Value | Class | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.2B | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-04 |
| Revenue growth (latest FY) | 3.4% | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2025 | FY 2025-12-31 revenue ÷ FY 2024-12-31 revenue − 1 |
| EBITDA (TTM, GAAP-derived) | $268.4M | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | Operating income + D&A |
| EBITDA margin (TTM) | 22.2% | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | EBITDA ÷ revenue |
| EBITDA margin FY2024 | 29.7% | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2024 | (Operating income + D&A) ÷ revenue, prior fiscal year |
| Net income (TTM) | $126.8M | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-04 |
| Operating cash flow (TTM) | $269.1M | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-04 |
| Capital expenditures (TTM) | $71.3M | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-04 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $197.8M | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | Operating cash flow − capex |
| Cash & short-term investments | $283.6M | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-04 |
| Total debt | $283.0M | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-04 |
| Shareholders' equity | $1.9B | REPORTED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-04 |
| Shares outstanding | 222.8M | CALCULATED | Jun 30, 2026 | 10-Q · filed 2026-08-04 |
| Share price | $7.39 | REPORTED | Sep 16, 2026 | Yahoo Finance · OTC Markets OTCQX |
| Market capitalization | $1.6B | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Share price × shares outstanding |
| Enterprise value | $1.6B | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Market cap + total debt − cash & short-term investments |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.1× | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA (TTM) |
03Evidence quality
04Value pathways
Ranked by deterministic Token Clear score. Each pathway lists the evidence that triggered it, the assumptions that size it, and what stands in its way.
EBITDA margin has compressed from 29.7% to 22.2% on a trailing basis. On $1.2B of revenue, each point recovered is worth $12.1M of annual EBITDA. Token Clear models recovering part of the 7.5% gap through pricing, mix, procurement and AI-driven operating efficiency.
Green Thumb Industries carries $435.6M of identified intangible assets plus $601.5M of goodwill (36.8% of total assets). Licensing brands into states where the company does not operate extends brand economics without new licenses or capex.
The effective tax rate is 55.3% on $280.4M of pre-tax income — the signature of IRC §280E, which disallows ordinary business deductions for cannabis sellers. $203.5M of unrecognized tax benefits are carried on the balance sheet. Token Clear models the cash-tax effect of a normalized rate and prepares the capital structure for a Schedule III outcome.
Cannabis retail remains cash-heavy because card networks prohibit cannabis purchases. Compliant closed-loop payments and loyalty on $1.2B of revenue can cut cash-handling cost and shrinkage while lifting basket size.
Green Thumb Industries holds $283.6M of cash and short-term investments against an operating reserve of $120.9M (10% of TTM revenue). A tiered treasury policy on the $162.6M above reserve can raise yield without reducing liquidity coverage.
Implied cost of debt is 7.5% on $283.0M of borrowings. Revenue-participation, convertible or asset-backed structures (including RPCST™-style instruments where permitted) are modeled to lower the all-in cost of capital.
Free cash flow yield is 12.0% ($197.8M on a $1.6B market cap) versus a 7.5% implied cost of debt and 5.0% ROIC (peer median -4.6%). At this yield, repurchases, deleveraging and acquisitions compete for the same dollar; Token Clear ranks each use of cash on modeled per-share value and risk rather than defaulting to one answer.
Stock-based compensation is $43.8M a year (3.6% of revenue). Participation structures that align employees with measured enterprise outcomes can deliver the same retention with less dilution.
The company holds net cash. Excess cash plus debt capacity to 2.5× EBITDA gives about $550.7M of acquisition capacity — 33.5% of enterprise value. Only synergies are counted; acquired EBITDA bought at a fair price is not value creation.
05Financial scenarios
| Scenario | Pathway EBITDA | Modeled EBITDA | EV at today's 6.1× | vs. today | EV at peer 7.7× (re-rating) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (reported) | $0.00 | $268.4M | $1.6B | 0.0% | $2.1B |
| Conservative | $46.0M | $314.5M | $1.9B | 17.1% | $2.4B |
| Base | $82.4M | $350.9M | $2.2B | 30.7% | $2.7B |
| Strategic | $118.8M | $387.3M | $2.4B | 44.3% | $3.0B |
Scenario columns apply the low, midpoint and high end of every counted pathway range. The peer column isolates a market re-rating and is shown for sensitivity only.
06Multiple Intelligence™
| Driver | Green Thumb Industries | Peer median | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 3.4% | -6.5% | ahead |
| EBITDA margin | 22.2% | 3.2% | ahead |
| FCF conversion | 73.7% | 38.0% | ahead |
| Return on invested capital | 5.0% | -4.6% | ahead |
| Net leverage | 0.0× | 3.8× | ahead |
| Capex intensity | 5.9% | 5.0% | in line |
| Stock comp / revenue | 3.6% | 1.7% | behind |
Peer set (3 valid of 7): TRLV (excluded: Negative GAAP EBITDA) · VRNO (excluded: Negative GAAP EBITDA) · CURLF 15.1× · CRLBF (excluded: Margin below 5% distorts the multiple) · TSNDF 7.7× · GLAS (excluded: Negative GAAP EBITDA) · AAWH 5.7×.
07The 1% Thesis™ — validated bottom-up
Not counted: $56.9M–$79.3M a year from contingent pathways.
08Recommended sequence & 90-day proof of value
- • Brand Licensing & IP Monetization
- • Compliant Cashless Payments & Loyalty
- • Treasury Optimization
- • Structured Refinancing of High-Cost Debt
- • Margin Recovery Program
- • Tax Structure & Rescheduling Readiness (IRC §280E)
- • Capital Allocation Engine
- • Employee Ownership & Retention Program
- • Accretive M&A Capacity
| Days 1–15 | Validate | Confirm reported facts, peer set and every ASSUMPTION with Green Thumb Industries finance leadership; close DATA REQUIRED gaps from primary filings. |
| Days 16–45 | Design | Detailed design for NOW pathways: Brand Licensing & IP Monetization, Compliant Cashless Payments & Loyalty, Treasury Optimization, Structured Refinancing of High-Cost Debt. Counsel review of regulatory blockers. |
| Days 46–75 | Approve & activate | Human approval gate per pathway; activate approved pathways with defined owners and baselines. |
| Days 76–90 | Measure | Baseline vs. target vs. actual on the first measurable metrics; decide on NEXT pathways and a platform engagement. |
09Risks & dependencies
- Brand licensing must satisfy each state's cannabis licensing and product rules.
- Depends on federal rescheduling to Schedule III — timing and outcome are outside management control.
- Card-network rules prohibit cannabis transactions; solution must be state-compliant and reviewed by counsel.
- Banking access for plant-touching businesses constrains counterparties and instruments.
- Federal status limits institutional lenders; securities structures need state and federal counsel.
10Methodology & disclosures
Evidence classes. REPORTED taken from SEC XBRL filings or delayed market data · CALCULATED deterministic derivation with formula · BENCHMARK live peer comparable · ASSUMPTION explicit, challengeable input · SCENARIO output of stated assumptions.
Calculations. Trailing-twelve-month figures are fiscal year + current year-to-date − prior year-to-date. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortization (GAAP-derived, excluding non-GAAP adjustments). Enterprise value is market capitalization plus total debt less cash and short-term investments, excluding leases, minority interest and preferred equity. Non-USD filers are converted at spot. Recurring pathway economics are valued at today's multiple; overlapping pathways are counted once and contingent pathways are excluded.
Governance. AI does not perform or override valuation arithmetic. Scoring configuration is confidential and server-side. No pathway proceeds without human approval.
Disclosure. This study provides enterprise-value intelligence, scenario modeling and strategic analysis. Illustrative scenarios are not forecasts, guarantees, investment recommendations or assurances of market valuation. Market prices and valuation multiples are determined by investors and market conditions. Certain strategies require legal, tax, accounting, regulatory and other professional review before implementation.