Cresco Labs Inc.
Is there value inside this enterprise that the company is not currently capturing?
Filings through Dec 31, 2025 · Market data as of Sep 16, 2026
WE MODEL THE ENTERPRISE.™
01Executive summary
Cresco Labs Inc. enters the engine with $655.8M of trailing revenue, $20.7M of GAAP-derived EBITDA and a $656.9M enterprise value. Token Clear detected 4 value pathways from the company's own filings, led by Margin Recovery Program, IP & Brand Monetization and Structured Refinancing of High-Cost Debt. Counted pathways model $45.3M–$111.4M of recurring annual economics, or $1.1B–$2.8B at today's multiple (172.4%–423.8% of current enterprise value) — against a 1% Thesis of $6.6M.
- GAAP EBITDA margin compressed from 23.0% (prior fiscal year) to 3.2% trailing — about $129.9M of annual EBITDA at today's revenue.
- Revenue grew -9.5% in the latest fiscal year.
- Latest machine-readable financials end 2025-12-31. Interim results filed on non-XBRL forms (e.g. 6-K) are not ingested — treat current-quarter figures as DATA REQUIRED.
02Current enterprise state
| Fact | Value | Class | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $655.8M | REPORTED | Dec 31, 2025 | 40-F · filed 2026-03-06 |
| Revenue growth (latest FY) | -9.5% | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2025 | FY 2025-12-31 revenue ÷ FY 2024-12-31 revenue − 1 |
| EBITDA (TTM, GAAP-derived) | $20.7M | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2025 | Operating income + D&A |
| EBITDA margin (TTM) | 3.2% | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2025 | EBITDA ÷ revenue |
| EBITDA margin FY2024 | 23.0% | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2024 | (Operating income + D&A) ÷ revenue, prior fiscal year |
| Net income (TTM) | −$135.4M | REPORTED | Dec 31, 2025 | 40-F · filed 2026-03-06 |
| Operating cash flow (TTM) | $72.9M | REPORTED | Dec 31, 2025 | 40-F · filed 2026-03-06 |
| Capital expenditures (TTM) | $35.1M | REPORTED | Dec 31, 2025 | 40-F · filed 2026-03-06 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $37.8M | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2025 | Operating cash flow − capex |
| Cash & short-term investments | $57.9M | REPORTED | Dec 31, 2025 | 40-F · filed 2026-03-06 |
| Total debt | $455.7M | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2025 | 40-F · filed 2026-03-06 |
| Shareholders' equity | $340.4M | REPORTED | Dec 31, 2025 | 40-F · filed 2026-03-06 |
| Shares outstanding | 355.0M | CALCULATED | Dec 31, 2025 | 40-F · filed 2026-03-06 |
| Share price | $0.73 | REPORTED | Sep 16, 2026 | Yahoo Finance · OTC Markets OTCQX |
| Market capitalization | $259.2M | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Share price × shares outstanding |
| Enterprise value | $656.9M | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Market cap + total debt − cash & short-term investments |
| EV / EBITDA | 31.7× | CALCULATED | Sep 16, 2026 | Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA (TTM) |
03Evidence quality
04Value pathways
Ranked by deterministic Token Clear score. Each pathway lists the evidence that triggered it, the assumptions that size it, and what stands in its way.
EBITDA margin has compressed from 23.0% to 3.2% on a trailing basis. On $655.8M of revenue, each point recovered is worth $6.6M of annual EBITDA. Token Clear models recovering part of the 19.8% gap through pricing, mix, procurement and AI-driven operating efficiency.
Cresco Labs Inc. carries $275.3M of identified intangible assets plus $208.2M of goodwill (40.4% of total assets). Licensing and brand partnerships can earn incremental returns on assets already paid for.
Implied cost of debt is 9.2% on $455.7M of borrowings. Revenue-participation, convertible or asset-backed structures (including RPCST™-style instruments where permitted) are modeled to lower the all-in cost of capital.
Free cash flow yield is 14.6% ($37.8M on a $259.2M market cap) versus a 9.2% implied cost of debt and -3.0% ROIC. At this yield, repurchases, deleveraging and acquisitions compete for the same dollar; Token Clear ranks each use of cash on modeled per-share value and risk rather than defaulting to one answer.
05Financial scenarios
| Scenario | Pathway EBITDA | Modeled EBITDA | EV at today's 25.0× | vs. today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today (reported) | $0.00 | $20.7M | $518.1M | -21.1% |
| Conservative | $45.3M | $66.0M | $1.7B | 151.3% |
| Base | $78.3M | $99.1M | $2.5B | 277.0% |
| Strategic | $111.4M | $132.1M | $3.3B | 402.7% |
Scenario columns apply the low, midpoint and high end of every counted pathway range. The peer column isolates a market re-rating and is shown for sensitivity only.
06Multiple Intelligence™
| Driver | Cresco Labs Inc. | Peer median | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -9.5% | — | data required |
| EBITDA margin | 3.2% | — | data required |
| FCF conversion | 182.2% | — | data required |
| Return on invested capital | -3.0% | — | data required |
| Net leverage | 19.2× | — | data required |
| Capex intensity | 5.4% | — | data required |
| Stock comp / revenue | 1.7% | — | data required |
Peer set (0 valid of 0): none configured.
07The 1% Thesis™ — validated bottom-up
08Recommended sequence & 90-day proof of value
- • IP & Brand Monetization
- • Structured Refinancing of High-Cost Debt
- • Margin Recovery Program
- • Capital Allocation Engine
| Days 1–15 | Validate | Confirm reported facts, peer set and every ASSUMPTION with Cresco Labs Inc. finance leadership; close DATA REQUIRED gaps from primary filings. |
| Days 16–45 | Design | Detailed design for NOW pathways: IP & Brand Monetization, Structured Refinancing of High-Cost Debt. Counsel review of regulatory blockers. |
| Days 46–75 | Approve & activate | Human approval gate per pathway; activate approved pathways with defined owners and baselines. |
| Days 76–90 | Measure | Baseline vs. target vs. actual on the first measurable metrics; decide on NEXT pathways and a platform engagement. |
09Risks & dependencies
- Securities-law, lender consent and rating-agency review.
10Methodology & disclosures
Evidence classes. REPORTED taken from SEC XBRL filings or delayed market data · CALCULATED deterministic derivation with formula · BENCHMARK live peer comparable · ASSUMPTION explicit, challengeable input · SCENARIO output of stated assumptions.
Calculations. Trailing-twelve-month figures are fiscal year + current year-to-date − prior year-to-date. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortization (GAAP-derived, excluding non-GAAP adjustments). Enterprise value is market capitalization plus total debt less cash and short-term investments, excluding leases, minority interest and preferred equity. Non-USD filers are converted at spot. Recurring pathway economics are valued at today's multiple; overlapping pathways are counted once and contingent pathways are excluded.
Governance. AI does not perform or override valuation arithmetic. Scoring configuration is confidential and server-side. No pathway proceeds without human approval.
Disclosure. This study provides enterprise-value intelligence, scenario modeling and strategic analysis. Illustrative scenarios are not forecasts, guarantees, investment recommendations or assurances of market valuation. Market prices and valuation multiples are determined by investors and market conditions. Certain strategies require legal, tax, accounting, regulatory and other professional review before implementation.